Macro Economic Policy Analysis

The Macro Economic Policy Analysis Directorate provides Government with expert advice and assistance in the formulation of economic policy particularly in relation to macroeconomic conditions, forecasting, public finances, industrial strategy and the European Union (EU)’s fiscal surveillance as part of the European Semester. As part of its work programme, the Directorate is responsible to maintain its short-term forecasting model and produce bi-annual economic forecasts. It also regularly monitors its forecasting performance, produces a risk assessment to the macroeconomic forecasts based on past forecast errors and alternative model-based forecast scenarios and produces macroeconomic forecasts through a number of alternative econometric models and techniques. The macroeconomic forecasts provide the basis for economicallysensitive fiscal projections which are submitted to the Budget Affairs Division in preparation for the bi-annual budgetary forecasts. The Directorate is responsible for the publication of the Draft Budget Plan, the Stability Programme, the Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy, the Annual Report and the Half-Yearly Report as part of the reporting commitments related to the Stability and Growth Pact and the Fiscal Responsibility Act. The Directorate participates in the Economic and Financial Committee Alternates meetings primarily dealing with fiscal policy making at EU and Eurogroup level in the context of the Stability and Growth Pact. The Directorate also provides inputs to multilateral organisations and agencies such as the European Commission, the IMF and various rating agencies. It also acts as the main interface between the Ministry for Finance and the Malta Fiscal Advisory Council.